The labor market is on the brink of further weakening, economist says

The US Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey saw job openings fall in April to 8.06 million from 8.355 million, the lowest level since February 2021. Citi Economist Veronica Clark and Sanctuary Chief Investment Strategist Mary Ann Bartels join Catalysts to break down the print and discuss what it could signal for the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate decision.
“We know that demand for labor is definitely coming down. You see that very obviously in the overall job openings number declining, but also in a very low hiring rate,” Clark explains. She adds that while layoffs are still low, businesses are looking to cut labor costs by pulling back on hiring new workers.
As Wall Street eyes the Fed’s next move in its battle against inflation, Bartels says that despite mixed data, “inflation can continue to come down. And we’re still forecasting that the Fed should be able to cut rates by 25 basis points in September.” Clark is wary of a recession, believing the labor market will continue to weaken as consumption and housing slow. However, Bartels pushes back on the idea, explaining, “The consumer is still spending, however selectively, and I think as long as the consumer is spending, I don’t see a recession.”
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